Paul Thurrott, explaining in 2010 how the iPad is Not ‘Killing’ Netbook Sales:
“And IDC is now forecasting that ‘mininotebook’ (i.e. netbooks and sub-12-inch machines) will sell 45.6 million units in 2011 and 60.3 million in 2013. If I remember the numbers from 2009, they were 10 percent of all PCs, or about 30 million units. Explain again how the iPad will beat that. Please. Even the craziest iPad sales predictions are a small percentage of that.”
Total number of iPads sold in 2012: 58.31 million.
Netbooks, on the other hand…
Netbook shipments in particular fell from 39.4m in 2010 to 29.4m in 2011, a 25% fall, as the total number of tablets shipped rose almost threefold from 23m to 63m by Canalys’s calculations.
As Paul put it in his original post:
So. Who you gonna believe? An Apple blogger from a web site and a Morgan Stanley employee? Or IDC and The Wall Street Journal.
I think we now have our answer to that one.
Acer President: Windows 8 is “not successful” but Chrome notebooks are winners | Computerworld Blogs:
To make up for the disappointing sales of Windows 8 devices, Acer is looking elsewhere. And right now, it’s finding that Chrome has been surprisingly successful. Acer released Chrome notebooks for $199 in November, and Chrome now accounts for between 5 percent and 10 percent of Acer’s U.S. sales. It’s been so successful that Acer may roll it out to other developed markets.
Add this to the data point revealed by a Dixons/PC World employee a while ago which claimed that where they sell them, Chromebooks have made up around 10% of their laptop sales, and you begin to a see a picture that should be worrying to Microsoft. Chromebooks are essentially eating the low-end of what was the netbook market: Small, cheap, light computers with limited functionality.
But unlike Windows-based netbooks, Chromebooks are much more secure, and they have the power of web apps. And unlike netbooks, they actually run web apps really well.
With tablets – by which I mean the iPad, of course – eating the higher end of the netbook market and Chromebooks taking the lower ground, Microsoft really should have reason to worry. Windows 8 doesn’t seem like the answer, and if Windows 8 fails to gain momentum, it would be a massive blow to Microsoft. When even Windows a stalwart like HP is starting to make Chromebooks, things don’t look so good in Redmond.
Michael Hickens thinks that thinks that the emergence of Android as a viable operating system on netbooks means Microsoft is in trouble:
“Microsoft got away with ignoring the Web as long as everything important was taking place on the desktop (most of which it owned), but the increasing ubiquity of cloud computing, abetted by faster and increasingly ubiquitous wireless connectivity (Wi-Fi, LTE, WiMax, 4G, etc.) is bringing that era to a close. Windows may be trying to catch up, but the truth is that people don’t love Microsoft. They love Apple, they love Google, and they love Nokia. People use Microsoft because they think they have to. Or rather, they used it because they thought they had to. Them days are over, Microsoft.”
It seems to me that it’s a big jump from “people don’t like Microsoft” to “people will use an operating system designed for mobile phones with minimal application support on netbooks”. I’m just not convinced that there’s any advantage to using Android rather than something like Moblin or Ubuntu Netbook Remix. The fact that you might even be able to use Android applications on Moblin makes the point even more moot.
What’s more, Windows 7 is a very different beast on netbooks than was either Vista or XP. It’s performance and reliability is better, for one – and the interface works nicely on a small screen.
UPDATE: And it seems that Acer isn’t all that sure about Android, either. The systems it will ship will be dual-boot, with Windows XP, because “consumer acceptance of the Android platform is unclear for the time being.”