Daring Fireball Linked List: Acer and Chrome OS, Sitting in a Tree:
“Sounds like Chrome OS is starting to get some traction, but I do wonder if actual sales match the ‘shipments’. Looking at my stats here at DF, Chrome OS accounted for 0.04 percent of traffic over the last four weeks.”
I don’t think John has really thought this through. Even if ChromeOS devices had accounted for 10% of all computers sold in the last year (which no one would claim, as they’re not even available in many markets), that would still amount to a tiny proportion of the total number of installed computers worldwide. Neither shipments nor sales tell you the story of installed base, and installed base is what visitors to a site is a measure of.
As for the shipments/sales issue, I’d point to this tweet from a Dixons employee which states that in stores where they have “Chrome Zones” with Chromebooks on sale, they make up 10% of their notebook sales. That’s “sales”, not “shipments” – as in real people walking out of the door with them.
Paul Thurrott, explaining in 2010 how the iPad is Not ‘Killing’ Netbook Sales:
“And IDC is now forecasting that ‘mininotebook’ (i.e. netbooks and sub-12-inch machines) will sell 45.6 million units in 2011 and 60.3 million in 2013. If I remember the numbers from 2009, they were 10 percent of all PCs, or about 30 million units. Explain again how the iPad will beat that. Please. Even the craziest iPad sales predictions are a small percentage of that.”
Total number of iPads sold in 2012: 58.31 million.
Netbooks, on the other hand…
Netbook shipments in particular fell from 39.4m in 2010 to 29.4m in 2011, a 25% fall, as the total number of tablets shipped rose almost threefold from 23m to 63m by Canalys’s calculations.
As Paul put it in his original post:
So. Who you gonna believe? An Apple blogger from a web site and a Morgan Stanley employee? Or IDC and The Wall Street Journal.
I think we now have our answer to that one.
Acer President: Windows 8 is “not successful” but Chrome notebooks are winners | Computerworld Blogs:
To make up for the disappointing sales of Windows 8 devices, Acer is looking elsewhere. And right now, it’s finding that Chrome has been surprisingly successful. Acer released Chrome notebooks for $199 in November, and Chrome now accounts for between 5 percent and 10 percent of Acer’s U.S. sales. It’s been so successful that Acer may roll it out to other developed markets.
Add this to the data point revealed by a Dixons/PC World employee a while ago which claimed that where they sell them, Chromebooks have made up around 10% of their laptop sales, and you begin to a see a picture that should be worrying to Microsoft. Chromebooks are essentially eating the low-end of what was the netbook market: Small, cheap, light computers with limited functionality.
But unlike Windows-based netbooks, Chromebooks are much more secure, and they have the power of web apps. And unlike netbooks, they actually run web apps really well.
With tablets – by which I mean the iPad, of course – eating the higher end of the netbook market and Chromebooks taking the lower ground, Microsoft really should have reason to worry. Windows 8 doesn’t seem like the answer, and if Windows 8 fails to gain momentum, it would be a massive blow to Microsoft. When even Windows a stalwart like HP is starting to make Chromebooks, things don’t look so good in Redmond.
The inestimable Mr Gruber:
Even “hardware” features are defined by software, and can no longer be judged on their own. Consider, say, mobile phone cameras. The camera itself is important – the sensor, the lens, the physical size – but ultimately what matters is the quality of the images it produces, and software is a huge part of that.
This is something that I have to repeatedly point out to Android users. Over and over again, they point out how the hardware on a particular phone is better than the iPhone, and how the software allows you more precision control over the shot you take with the camera.
And over and over again, I ask “which takes better pictures?”
And the answer is always the iPhone.
(via Daring Fireball Linked List: CES Is the World’s Greatest Hardware Show Stuck in a Software Era)
Marco Arment thinks that Google is heading down the wrong path with Google+:
But Google’s increasingly desperate push to cram Google+ down everyone’s throats hasn’t made Google+ any more relevant. It has only resulted in a lot of confused Google-account owners who inadvertently “upgraded” to Google+ while trying to do something else on a Google property, and who don’t even realize that they have this account on this social network that none of their friends use even though they all accidentally have accounts on it.
(via There’s No Avoiding Google+ – Marco.org)
I think Marco is missing the point of Google+. As the WSJ report he links to puts it:
“Both Facebook and Google make the vast bulk of their revenue from selling ads. But Facebook has something Google wants: Facebook can tie people’s online activities to their real names, and it also knows who those people’s friends are. Marketers say Google has told them that closer integration of Google+ across its many properties will allow Google to obtain this kind of information and target people with more relevant (and therefore, more profitable) ads.”
If none of those registered users actually posted a single thing on Google+, Google would still get something out of it. Google+ is all about tying together all your activity across the web into a single, coherent identity, one where it also knows who your friends are – which, of course, Google will track as you send and receive emails, comment on blogs, and so on. If you post and “+1″ things, all the better as it gives Google more data about what you like. But it’s not essential.
Dan Lyons, once again talking out of his ass:
This is a crushing blow to Microsoft, which has spent millions of dollars on lobbyists and phony grassroots groups over the past several years hoping to land Google in hot water.
You would think from this that Google, meanwhile, hasn’t been spending money on lobbyists.
Oh no wait
In fact, as a cursory search on Opensecrets.org reveals, Google significantly outspent Microsoft on lobbying in 2012, as it had in 2011.
But hey – never let facts get in the way of a good story, Dan.
Update: I’d forgotten this great quote about Lyons from MG Siegler:
This is a pattern for Lyons. He wants to write something, so he does the minimal amount of work possible, then writes it. It leads to situations like this. Which leads to him apologizing for being wrong. Or just looking like an ass.
MG nailed Lyons far, far earlier than most of us.
Apple to play wearable computer game, says analyst | ZDNet:
“We note that recent speculation from tech blogs suggests that Apple may launch a watch as a companion device to the iPhone. While we are unsure of the ultimate launch timing (likely 2014 or later), we believe that Apple will eventually introduce some type of wearable computing product.”
When your “analysis” consists of nothing more than reading “speculation from tech blogs”, you probably should find another line of work.
For the record, I’m betting “nope“.
Nicholas Carlson, Monday:
“Google Is Attacking Apple From The Inside Out—And It’s Working”
Nicholas Carlson, today:
“Apple Is Blasting A Multi-Billion Dollar Hole In Samsung’s Business”
Nicholas Carlson, next week:
“Samsung Is Sticking Its Fingers Right Up Google’s Nose – And It’s Hurting”
And so the circle of headlines will be complete
Benedict Evans sums up the current state of the mobile market:
“In other words, Apple has 20-30% of the market by volume, but it is the top 20-30%. Google ‘has’ the rest, but has only a very tenuous connection to large parts of it, and another large proportion is likely to be worth little or nothing for a long time. Roll on uncertainty (link): everything will change, again, in the next year. ”
This is only phase one. Whether iOS and Android are even in the same market most of the time is up for debate.