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Guess again

Another YouTube Revenue Guess: $1 Billion in 2011:

Since Google releases almost no information about YouTube’s financial performance, the best we can do is make educated guesses. Here’s another one: The word’s biggest video site will be generating more than $1.1 billion in revenue by 2011, and Google will keep about $700 million of that.That estimate comes from Citigroup’s C Mark Mahaney, who notes that the site continues to grow, and that it’s placing more ads on more videos. No news there.Mahaney is good enough to explain the logic behind his estimate, and it’s a fairly simple one: He takes MySpace’s revenue-to-page view ratio and applies to YouTube.

So he makes a guess about MySpace’s CPM (he notes it’s “estimated”), applies a guess that this *might* be similar for YouTube (ignoring the fact that a video site is not the same as a social network site), guesses that the mix between CPM and CPC ads is the same on both sites, and then guesses that comScore’s figures are correct. He then throws into the mix a complete guess on YouTube’s costs ($300 million sounds massively low)… and publishes this as “analysis”?

How much are CItigroup’s clients paying for this, exactly?

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