Comments on: John Gruber questions NPD figures, just as NPD figures turn against Apple

By: Why Blog Comments Are Bad

Why Blog Comments Are Bad — Wed, 16 Jun 2010 10:52:36 +0000

[...] his tail over his habit of excoriating those who make predictions and get it wrong, and over some inconsistency in the way he views positive and negative figures for Apple market share. And I’ve argued [...]

By: ianbetteridge

ianbetteridge — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 15:54:28 +0000

Oh, I think they could ride out quite a lot longer than till the end of the year - they're still making good margins and selling lots of products, and with any luck the worst of the recession will be behind us soon.

Of course, there's a danger that the bottom could drop out of the Mac market - but I think that's still a remote danger, and the first people to know about it will be Apple (they get the daily sales, of course). They'll have plans in case that happens. All the evidence suggests that this is a very well-managed company.

By: Wes

Wes — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 04:55:24 +0000

Looks like they did expand a bit in phone distribution in late 2008 and 2009 (big ones being Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Thailand and a number of African country). Anyway, I don't disagree on Mac numbers. If I'm reading them right (I'm using the info as analysed by Joe Wilcox at Apple Watch) Apple computer sales fell pretty much in line with PC sales, after removing netbooks from the picture, with sales shifting to the cheaper white model. Given the profit margins, they could probably ride out the rest of the year, provided sales don't fall more dramatically. I presume 10.6 will come out later this year (3Q or 4Q) which is always good to boost sales more. Still, the unknown is still the economy. I'm very pessimistic on that front, and we're due to see much worse.

By: ianbetteridge

ianbetteridge — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 17:27:54 +0000

Yes, it's pretty clear: iPod and iPhone sales are strong. Mac sales aren't, but also aren't anything to worry too much about. A drop in sales is entirely predictable and consistent with the current economy, and the actual fall isn't significant enough for Apple to have to panic and start hacking prices and margins.

One interesting question that I haven't seen an answer to: did Apple expand availability of iPhone into any significant new territories or new channels this quarter? If so, that might explain the good iPhone sales.

Retail stores usually report both increased revenue and revenue which is normalised against new channels and stores, so you can better judge performance. Given Apple's aggressive move into retail, they should probably start reporting that, too.

By: Wes

Wes — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 17:05:53 +0000

Here's an interesting case study. Gruber turned out to be right, but not for reasons he implied. Apple's sales figures were surprisingly good, but that was almost entirely on the back of the iPod and iPhone and related sales. Mac sales did drop significantly in America, pretty close to what NPD had predicted, though softened by the release of new desktop machines. Though Gruber's language is slippery enough for him to claim victory, I think in this case, the point goes to NPD.

By: ianbetteridge

ianbetteridge — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 19:36:25 +0000

Heh, well, hardly: I greatly enjoy John's writing generally. I just think he may have got carried away with the pro-Apple outlook this time.

By: Glug

Glug — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 03:22:21 +0000

Gruber vs Betteridge – FIGHT!

By: Chris

Chris — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 22:04:40 +0000

Hi,

We have setup a new monthly competition in order to persuade people to do a review on their blogs or websites about our e-shop called H@ME Interiors (www.homestansted.co.uk).

Every month we are going to award £30 (or the same in Dollars or Euros) to one individual reviewer, and hope to keep this ongoing through-out this year.

You can read full information about this here, http://www.homestansted.co.uk/blog_review.php

If you need any further information, please let me know.

Chris K
ck@mymirrors.co.uk

* apologies if i have written this into a comment, it just means i cannot find any contact information for you.