Dan Frommer thinks not:
“So is 1 million a good number or not? It’s not — not even by Apple’s own low-ball public sales goals. Jobs has announced plans to sell 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008 — a year and a half after launch. But a million iPhones in 74 days works out to a little less than 5 million iPhones per year — if you’re selling them at a consistent rate. Apple sold 270,000 machines in the first two frenzied days it was on sale, which means it took 72 more days to sell another 700,000 phones. That’s a 3.6 million annual run rate, which would give Jobs a total of 5.8 million by the end of 2008…”
Of course, as Frommer points out, the iPhone is only available in the US at present, and a good European launch might well see it through. But it will be interesting to see just how well the iPhone sells, and if that 10 million phone target can really be met.